Part 3 of the Silicon Scarcity Asset Matrix series by Exotics Wanted
In Part 2, we scored the six models that anchor the top of the Silicon Scarcity Asset Matrix. The Ferrari F355 at 53. The Aventador SVJ at 45. The 812 Competizione, the GT3, the R8 V10, the 812 Superfast. Composites from 53 to 38. Analog Icons whose semiconductor profiles reward mechanical sovereignty with structural resilience. This is the other side: six models where the silicon discount for exotic cars is already priced into the secondary market, and the scores explain exactly why. We term this the exotic car silicon discount assessment.
Below 38, the matrix changes character.
The six models scored here share a composite range from 33 to 14. They include a quad-turbocharged W16 hypercar, Ferrari’s first series-production hybrid, Lamborghini’s V12 plug-in successor, both McLarens in the coverage universe, and the only full EV in the matrix. Their engineering is extraordinary. Their semiconductor exposure is not.
The question Part 2 answered was: where does the Analog Premium come from? The question this installment answers is: where does the Silicon Discount go, and how deep does it reach?
The Scoring Recap
Each model is scored across six metrics on a 1 to 10 scale, where 10 represents maximum resilience. The six metrics are S:HP Ratio (semiconductor dependency), Node Longevity (chip production horizon adjusted for allocation), Geopolitical Resilience (fabrication geography), Repair Sovereignty (who can fix it), Residual Stability (what the market says), and Supply Priority (institutional procurement leverage). Every score cites a specific chip, a specific foundry node, and a documented production status. The full methodology is detailed in Part 2.
The Protected Dependent: Bugatti Chiron
Composite: 33/60 | Profile: Protected Dependent
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 5 | 8.0L quad-turbo W16 with active aerodynamics (hydraulic rear wing, front air intakes), all-wheel-drive torque vectoring, adaptive damping, and full digital cockpit; substantial electronic contribution despite no hybridization. |
| Node Longevity | 6 | Bosch MED17.1.12 with Infineon TC1793 at 65nm; same Category 3 ample-supply node as the SVJ and 812 platforms; active production, zero AI competition, no discontinuation notices. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 7 | Bosch ECU with TC1793 fabbed at Infineon Dresden/Villach (European); Rimac Group (Croatia/EU) provides EU Chips Act alignment; 30+ ECU suppliers create a wider geographic map but core silicon is European. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 4 | Access is captive: parts blacklisting for unauthorized modifications, 10,000-signal telemetry monitoring, Flying Doctors monopoly on major service, $50K+ annual maintenance; but Rimac’s in-house ECU design and NXP S32E2 deployment capability means the path to chip replacement is the strongest in the matrix. |
| Residual Stability | 6 | Base Chiron models declining 5 to 11% from MSRP with multiple auction failures across 2024 and 2025, including no-sales at RM Sotheby’s, Bonhams, Barrett-Jackson, Broad Arrow, and Gooding; only 42% sell-through rate on base models; Sport, Pur Sport, and Super Sport variants hold or appreciate; the fleet is splitting between depreciating base models and appreciating limited editions. |
| Supply Priority | 5 | Rimac Group has strong engineering capability but small volume (approximately 500 Chirons total); NXP S32E2 partnership is forward-looking but the procurement volume that drives foundry priority is not there; reliance on Bosch for engine management provides Bosch’s institutional weight indirectly. |
| Composite | 33 | Protected Dependent. |
The Bugatti Chiron presents the matrix’s most counterintuitive profile. Its Repair Sovereignty score of 4 is lower than any of the six Analog Icons scored in Part 2, yet the Chiron’s manufacturer has the strongest chip-replacement capability of any company in the coverage universe.
The paradox resolves on two axes: capability and access.
Rimac Technology, which acquired Bugatti in 2021 and now operates Bugatti Rimac, is not a car company that buys electronics from suppliers. Rimac designs and manufactures ECUs in-house. The Zagreb campus assembles centralized vehicle controllers. Their next-generation platform consolidates 20+ distributed ECUs into three centralized units handling 70% of vehicle functions. A June 2025 partnership with NXP confirmed deployment of the S32E2 real-time processor series in Rimac’s next ECU platform. If the Chiron’s Infineon TC1793 reaches absolute end-of-life, Rimac has the engineering bench depth, the board-level assembly capability, and the active semiconductor supplier relationships to design a replacement module. No other manufacturer in this matrix can make that claim.
The access side is where the score contracts. Bugatti operates the most restrictive service model in the exotic car world. Parts blacklisting for unauthorized modifications. Continuous telemetry surveillance across 10,000 signals. The “Flying Doctors” program monopolizes major service events. Annual maintenance costs exceed $50,000. There is no independent repair pathway comparable to a Lamborghini specialist with ODIS access and a VW Group donor pool.
The Residual Stability score of 6 reflects a splitting fleet. Base Chiron models have declined 5 to 11% from their $2.99 million MSRP, with a sell-through rate of just 42% at auction. The pattern is documented across every major house: no-sales at RM Sotheby’s (March 2024, Paris January 2024), Bonhams (Miami, May 2024), Barrett-Jackson (Scottsdale Fall 2024), Broad Arrow (Monterey 2025), and Gooding (Monterey 2025). The Canelo Alvarez Chiron, configured at $3.19 million, failed at Barrett-Jackson and eventually sold on Bring a Trailer for $2.85 million, a 10.7% decline from its as-delivered sticker. Limited variants tell a different story: the Pur Sport, Super Sport 300+, and Mistral command premiums. The Chiron’s residual trajectory depends entirely on which variant an owner holds.
For the owner asking whether the Chiron’s silicon will be replaceable in 2035: almost certainly yes. Rimac has the capability. The question is at what cost, on whose terms, and with what access restrictions. High replacement probability. Maximum economic captivity.
The Complex Dependent: Lamborghini Revuelto
Composite: 30/60 | Profile: Complex Dependent
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 4 | 6.5L NA V12 augmented by three electric motors; the V12 delivers mechanical performance but inverter control, battery management, and motor coordination add substantial semiconductor content beyond a pure ICE architecture. |
| Node Longevity | 5 | Dual-front exposure: Qualcomm Snapdragon Digital Chassis at 5nm competes with NVIDIA for every wafer start (4 to 5% TSMC automotive allocation vs. 57 to 58% AI/HPC); V12 ECU at 40nm is safe but cockpit SoC faces allocation pressure. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 6 | V12 ECU silicon from Infineon European fabs (Dresden); Qualcomm cockpit SoC fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan (high geopolitical exposure on the advanced-node component); split geography across the two architectures. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 3 | VW ODIS provides backbone access for ICE systems but dual-architecture (V12 plus three e-motors) requires both traditional and high-voltage certification; the HV system narrows the repair funnel substantially below the SVJ’s wide-open pathway despite sharing VW Group’s procurement backbone. |
| Residual Stability | 4 | Sequential BaT auction decline from +$125K over MSRP (January 2025) to a no-sale at $668K (April 2025) to $34K below sticker (May 2025) within five months; 80 to 100 unique listings across platforms, with approximately 50 to 60 unique U.S. inventory, suggest supply is outpacing demand; no SV or SVJ limited-series variant announced to anchor the top of the range. |
| Supply Priority | 8 | Lamborghini’s flagship, backed by full VW Group COMPASS procurement with direct Infineon/NXP agreements; 9M vehicle annual group volume provides the procurement backstop that no independent manufacturer can match. |
| Composite | 30 | Complex Dependent. |
The Lamborghini Revuelto is the bridge between eras, and the matrix scores it as such. Its Supply Priority of 8, tied for the highest among hybrid models and matching the SVJ, reflects the full weight of VW Group’s procurement infrastructure. The Revuelto is not an orphan competing for wafer starts. It has the same institutional backing that allowed Lamborghini to set consecutive all-time delivery records throughout 2021 to 2023, when the rest of the industry lost millions of units to chip allocation failures. CEO Stephan Winkelmann confirmed the insulation directly: “The chip shortage is not affecting us in a dramatic way, because we are a small manufacturer inside a big group. We have high margins, so we get a priority in terms of supply.”
Everywhere else, the score contracts.
Dual architecture creates dual exposure. The Revuelto’s 6.5-liter V12 runs on mature-node silicon through the Bosch ECU platform, the same Category 3 chips that serve the SVJ with ample supply and zero AI competition. But the three electric motors, the 3.8 kWh battery pack, and the YASA axial-flux motor controllers introduce a second semiconductor chain on nodes where automotive fights AI for capacity. The cockpit runs a Qualcomm Snapdragon Digital Chassis SoC fabricated at 5nm by TSMC, where automotive receives 4 to 5% of wafer allocation while AI and HPC consume 57 to 58%.
Node Longevity drops to 5 under the allocation-versus-runway principle established in Part 2. The 5nm chips will be manufactured for decades. Whether Lamborghini can secure allocation against NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple is the operative question, and the data suggests automotive is structurally disadvantaged at this node.
Residual Stability at 4 captures the Revuelto’s most visible problem. Bring a Trailer auction data shows a sequential decline from $125,000 above MSRP in January 2025 (Lot #177,773, $733,000) to a failed reserve at $668,000 in April 2025 (Lot #188,953) to $34,000 below the $689,158 window sticker in May 2025 ($655,000). That trajectory played out in under five months. Across platforms, 80 to 100 unique listings are active globally, with approximately 50 to 60 representing unique U.S. inventory on CARFAX and Kelley Blue Book. And unlike the Aventador, which spawned the SV, the SVJ, and the SVJ 63 to anchor the top of its value range, the Revuelto has no limited-series variant announced. The Aventador’s appreciation story was written by its final editions. The Revuelto does not yet have that chapter.
Repair Sovereignty at 3 reflects the dual-architecture penalty. An SVJ owner with ODIS access and a J2534 adapter can diagnose and code every system independently. A Revuelto owner faces a split: the V12 side is accessible through VW Group’s established pathways, but the high-voltage system requires specialized certification, proprietary YASA motor controller diagnostics, and a service infrastructure that is still being built. The repair funnel narrows precisely at the systems that differentiate the Revuelto from its predecessor.
The Analog at Risk: McLaren 720S
Composite: 30/60 | Profile: Analog at Risk
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 7 | 4.0L twin-turbo V8 with no hybridization; the MonoCell II carbon tub and hydraulic suspension (PCC II Proactive Chassis Control) are mechanically sophisticated; electronic contribution is concentrated in chassis management rather than powertrain. |
| Node Longevity | 5 | Bosch MED17 with Infineon TC1797 at 65nm; same Category 3 node as SVJ and 812 platforms; active production, zero AI competition; PCC II hydraulic valving adds Bosch-sourced sensor modules on mature nodes. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 6 | Engine ECU silicon (Infineon TC17xx) is European-fabbed; McLaren’s isolation from any major automotive group means no institutional weight to redirect supply during disruption; the chip’s address is safe but the procurement infrastructure is thin. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 5 | Third-party DiagCode ($6,500) and Leonardo ($24,995) tools provide dealer-equivalent capability including ECU reflashing and key programming; PCC II suspension is the documented failure point at $40K+ for a full rebuild; the silicon itself is sourceable through Bosch’s institutional pipeline. |
| Residual Stability | 5 | Stabilized in the $170K to $300K range depending on specification and model year; older 2018 coupes dip to $170K to $190K while later-model Spiders command $280K to $380K; bulk of the market clusters between $200K and $275K; no longer depreciating aggressively but not appreciating; Performance and Spider variants hold modest premiums over base coupes. |
| Supply Priority | 2 | Approximately 2,500 annual McLaren units; no parent group procurement; confirmed “chip supply dried up” admission during the shortage; £924M loss in 2023; CYVN Holdings (Abu Dhabi) completed acquisition December 2024 but provides zero semiconductor procurement infrastructure. |
| Composite | 30 | Analog at Risk. |
The McLaren 720S is a better car than its manufacturer’s infrastructure. That sentence is the entire 720S story on the matrix.
Its S:HP Ratio of 7 places it alongside the GT3 and the 812 Competizione. No hybridization. A twin-turbocharged V8 whose performance is delivered through combustion and a hydraulically actuated chassis, not through electric motors or battery-assisted torque fill. The 720S is, mechanically, an analog supercar. Its Node Longevity of 5, on the same 65nm Infineon platform that supports the SVJ, confirms active production with zero AI competition. Its Repair Sovereignty of 5 benefits from third-party diagnostic tools (DiagCode at $6,500, Leonardo at $24,995) that provide dealer-equivalent access including ECU reflashing and key programming.
The Supply Priority score of 2 is what separates the 720S from a composite in the 40s.
McLaren produces approximately 2,500 vehicles per year. It has no parent group. It confirmed during the 2021 to 2023 shortage that its “chip supply dried up.” It posted a £924 million loss in 2023. CYVN Holdings, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth vehicle that completed McLaren’s acquisition in December 2024, provides capital but zero semiconductor procurement infrastructure. McLaren outsources all ECU design to Bosch. It has no in-house silicon capability. If Bosch sunsets the MED17 platform in 2035, McLaren has no internal pathway to build a replacement. It would need to contract a third-party integrator to reverse-engineer the legacy module, qualify it for the vehicle, and hope the economics work for a few thousand cars. Compare that to Rimac’s in-house capability, or VW Group’s 9-million-unit procurement weight, or Ferrari’s STMicro executive pipeline.
The 720S scores higher than any hybrid in the matrix because five of its six metrics reward its mechanical architecture and relatively accessible repair pathways. The market has stabilized across a $170,000 to $300,000 band: older 2018 coupes with higher mileage trade in the $170,000 to $190,000 range, while 2022 and 2023 Spiders command $280,000 to $380,000. Most transactions cluster between $200,000 and $275,000. The PCC II hydraulic suspension system is the documented failure point at $40,000+ for a full rebuild, but that is a known quantity with an established repair infrastructure, not a semiconductor availability problem. The silicon itself is sourceable. The question is whether McLaren’s supply chain can deliver it reliably across a 15-to-20-year ownership horizon, and the institutional data says no.
The Collapsed: Ferrari SF90 Stradale
Composite: 27/60 | Profile: Collapsed
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 3 | 4.0L twin-turbo V8 plus three electric motors (986 combined HP); hybrid power management, battery thermal control, and motor inverters add substantial semiconductor content; electronic systems define the powertrain, not just support it. |
| Node Longevity | 4 | Dual-front allocation victim: Marelli inverter modules face Category 4 relocation-gap pressure on mature power nodes AND centralized cockpit gateway faces AI competition on advanced nodes; the Ferrari SF90 Stradale is exposed at both ends of the semiconductor spectrum. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 7 | Ferrari’s STMicro executive pipeline (CEO Vigna, CRO Lasalandra, CPO Pesci) gives institutional access to European fabs at Agrate, Catania, and Crolles; advanced-node chips benefit from CHIPS Act strategic priority. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 3 | Ferrari SD3 gating plus high-voltage certification creates a double barrier; 12V lithium BMS confirmed VIN-locked to Motorola 9S12 CPU requiring PKPROG; hybrid warranty gated on “technical inspection by Ferrari personnel” codifies dealer dependency into the ownership contract. |
| Residual Stability | 3 | Stradale trades $415K to $485K at auction and $420K to $500K at dealers; Spider holds significantly better at $525K to $580K auction and $575K to $650K dealer; the 35 to 45% loss applies to heavily optioned Stradales (a $763K example selling for $485K represents a 36.5% decline) while Spiders show 17 to 19% losses from sticker; 155+ CARFAX listings indicate meaningful oversupply; the fastest-depreciating Ferrari in the current lineup. |
| Supply Priority | 7 | Same Ferrari institutional procurement strength as the 812 models; STMicro pipeline serves the hybrid power electronics as well as engine management; the Ferrari SF90 Stradale benefits from Ferrari’s semiconductor relationships even if it cannot escape its depreciation. |
| Composite | 27 | Collapsed. |
Ferrari SF90 Stradale depreciation is the sharpest in the coverage universe, and the composite score of 27 explains why institutional strength cannot overcome architectural exposure.
The SF90 holds a Geopolitical Resilience of 7 and a Supply Priority of 7. Those are Ferrari scores, backed by the STMicro executive pipeline that gives the 812 Competizione its semiconductor sourcing advantage. CEO Benedetto Vigna, CRO Ernesto Lasalandra, and CPO Angelo Pesci carry institutional relationships into European fabs at Agrate, Catania, and Crolles that no other manufacturer can replicate. The Ferrari SF90 Stradale benefits from all of it.
It does not matter.
Residual Stability at 3 is the gravitational force that no institutional advantage can offset. The Stradale and Spider tell two different depreciation stories, and both are concerning for different reasons. A heavily optioned Stradale that left the factory at $763,000 sells for $485,000 at auction: a 36.5% loss, $278,000 of value destruction within a production cycle. That Ferrari SF90 Stradale value loss is not an outlier. Most Stradales trade in the $415,000 to $485,000 range at auction, with dealer asking prices of $420,000 to $500,000. Spiders hold better: auction results cluster between $525,000 and $580,000, with dealer asks of $575,000 to $650,000. A 2024 Spider stickered at $704,000 sold on Bring a Trailer for $579,000, a 17.8% decline. For context, the 812 Competizione doubled its MSRP in the same period. Both cars wear the Cavallino Rampante. Both benefit from the same STMicro pipeline. One appreciates. One collapses. Over 155 SF90s listed on CARFAX confirm that oversupply is compounding SF90 depreciation, and the SF90 XX Stradale is drawing collector capital away from standard models. The Ferrari SF90 Stradale depreciation we are documenting, $278,000 from sticker for a heavily optioned Stradale, is the market’s primary reaction to high-density digital fragility.
Node Longevity at 4 captures the SF90’s structural disadvantage. The SF90 is a dual-front allocation victim: its Marelli inverter modules sit on mature power-semiconductor nodes where foundry floor space is being redirected toward more profitable AI chip production, while its advanced cockpit gateway SoC competes at nodes where automotive receives a fraction of available capacity. The SF90 is exposed at both ends of the semiconductor spectrum simultaneously. The 812 Competizione, running on a single 65nm node with no hybrid components, faces neither pressure.
Repair Sovereignty at 3 reflects the double barrier of Ferrari’s SD3 dealer-gating combined with high-voltage certification requirements. The 12V lithium battery management system is VIN-locked to a Motorola 9S12 CPU, requiring specialized PKPROG access for replacement. The hybrid warranty is gated on “technical inspection by Ferrari personnel,” codifying dealer dependency into the ownership contract itself. An 812 owner facing a failed ECU has the same SD3 friction. An SF90 owner facing a failed inverter module has SD3 friction plus HV certification requirements plus VIN-locked BMS modules plus a warranty structure that penalizes independent service.
The SF90 is Ferrari’s most technologically ambitious production car. It is also, by the matrix’s measure, Ferrari’s weakest long-term asset position. The SF90 price drop from sticker confirms what the composite predicts: SF90 value is being repriced around semiconductor architecture, not performance capability.
The Collapsed: McLaren Artura
Composite: 21/60 | Profile: Collapsed
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 4 | 3.0L twin-turbo V6 plus single electric motor; the Artura’s zonal Ethernet backbone replaces traditional wiring with high-speed networking transceivers and zonal controllers, achieving among the highest silicon densities in the matrix. |
| Node Longevity | 5 | Bosch MED17 engine ECU with Infineon TC1793 at 65nm; same Category 3 node as 720S; active production with long runway; zonal Ethernet controllers on similar mature nodes. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 5 | Engine ECU silicon from Infineon European fabs; but zonal Ethernet architecture draws from a wider and less documented supplier map; McLaren’s procurement isolation prevents institutional weight during geographic disruption. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 3 | McLaren has zero in-house ECU design capability; Ethernet-over-Power zonal architecture requires factory diagnostic servers; documented 2 to 15+ week parts wait times, with minor components at the short end and major drivetrain repairs stretching beyond 15 weeks per McLaren Life owner reports; smallest production volume among hybrid models; platform-orphaned zonal controllers shared with no other vehicle. |
| Residual Stability | 2 | 21.5% depreciation within the first year of ownership per CarGurus data; the steepest initial-year decline among all models in the matrix; limited buyer confidence in McLaren’s long-term support infrastructure. |
| Supply Priority | 2 | Same McLaren procurement weakness as the 720S; zonal Ethernet architecture may require a broader range of suppliers than the simpler 720S, stretching already-thin procurement further; CYVN Holdings provides capital, not semiconductor relationships. |
| Composite | 21 | Collapsed. |
The McLaren Artura occupies the position where every factor compounds negatively.
The 720S scored 30 because its mechanical architecture earned strong marks on five of six metrics, with only Supply Priority dragging the composite. The Artura cannot lean on that same mechanical advantage because its zonal Ethernet backbone has fundamentally changed the car’s semiconductor profile. Traditional wiring harnesses are replaced by high-speed networking transceivers and zonal controllers, producing among the highest silicon densities in the coverage universe. The S:HP Ratio of 4 reflects a vehicle whose architecture is closer to a networked computing platform than to the 720S’s hydraulic analog philosophy.
Supply Priority carries the same 2 as the 720S. McLaren’s institutional weaknesses do not improve because the vehicle is newer. Approximately 2,500 annual units. No parent group procurement. £924 million in 2023 losses. CYVN Holdings provides capital restructuring, not semiconductor supply agreements.
Repair Sovereignty at 3 captures the Artura’s most acute vulnerability. The zonal Ethernet architecture is platform-orphaned: its controllers are shared with no other vehicle in production. If a zonal module fails and Bosch has sunset the platform, McLaren cannot design a replacement internally. The repair pathway narrows to: find a third-party contractor willing to reverse-engineer a zonal controller for a production run measured in hundreds, qualify it for the vehicle’s Ethernet backbone, and deliver it through a supply chain where owners report wait times of 2 to 15+ weeks. Minor parts clear in roughly two weeks. Major drivetrain components, including e-motor replacements and transmission assemblies, stretch to 15 weeks or longer, with some owners documenting 50+ cumulative days of service downtime. McLaren CEO Michael Leiters acknowledged the Artura needed “substantial technical upgrades” and that past models shipped as “non-mature products.” The economics of the long-term repair pathway do not close.
Residual Stability at 2 is the second-lowest in the matrix. A 21.5% first-year depreciation rate, confirmed by CarGurus year-over-year data across 150 listings, reflects a market that is pricing exactly the risks the matrix identifies: institutional weakness, repair complexity, and supply chain fragility. The Artura launched as McLaren’s technological flagship. The secondary market has responded by discounting the technology faster than any other model in the coverage universe except the Folgore.
The Floor: Maserati GranTurismo Folgore
Composite: 14/60 | Profile: Collapsed (EV)
| Metric | Score | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| S:HP Ratio | 1 | Maximum silicon density in the matrix; three SiC inverters, 800V battery management system controlling a 92.5 kWh pack, Qualcomm 5nm infotainment SoC, VDCM torque vectoring controller; estimated $2,000 to $3,000+ semiconductor content per vehicle. |
| Node Longevity | 5 | Qualcomm 5nm cockpit SoC faces the same 4 to 5% TSMC automotive allocation as the Revuelto; SiC power devices on mature nodes from STMicro, Infineon, and onsemi are safe; the advanced-node allocation constraint is the scoring driver. |
| Geopolitical Resilience | 4 | Qualcomm SoC fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan (maximum geopolitical exposure); SiC from STMicro Catania (moderate EU protection); bespoke Marelli powertrain with zero cross-platform sharing. |
| Repair Sovereignty | 1 | 800V architecture requires specialized high-voltage training; proprietary VDCM diagnostics; OTA-dependent calibration; dealer network shrinking (Maserati sales down 85% from 2017 peak of 51,500 to approximately 7,800 in 2025); no independent repair pathway exists or is being developed. |
| Residual Stability | 1 | $85,000 factory “Folgore EV Assistance Cash” discounts (43% off MSRP), the largest manufacturer-backed discount CarsDirect has ever recorded; trading below the ICE GranTurismo at the discounted price; no secondary market confidence; active manufacturer price destruction signals inventory clearance, not market building. |
| Supply Priority | 2 | Stellantis ranked last on the 2025 OEM-Supplier Working Relations Index with a score of 141, a 245-point gap below Toyota and an 11-point decline year-over-year; bespoke triple-motor 800V architecture shared with zero other vehicles; minimal foundry negotiating power; CFO Natalie Knight publicly discussed potential brand divestiture on the July 25, 2024 earnings call, and CEO Tavares added: “If they don’t make money, we’ll shut them down.” Stellantis denied sale intent. In June 2025, Reuters reported McKinsey was hired to evaluate options including possible sale. No sale has occurred. |
| Composite | 14 | Collapsed (EV). |
The Maserati GranTurismo Folgore is the lowest score in the Silicon Scarcity Asset Matrix. Lower than the Artura. Lower than any model across all twelve vehicles in the coverage universe.
The Folgore does not collapse on chip architecture alone. It collapses on corporate viability.
S:HP Ratio of 1 reflects maximum silicon density. The 800V BEV architecture requires three silicon carbide inverters, a battery management system monitoring a 92.5 kWh pack across hundreds of cells, a Qualcomm 5nm infotainment and cockpit SoC, and a Vehicle Dynamics Control Module that torque-vectors across three motors in real time. Estimated semiconductor content per vehicle exceeds $2,000 to $3,000, compared to under $100 for the F355 at the top of the matrix. Every performance dimension is electronically defined. Remove the silicon and the Folgore does not move.
Repair Sovereignty of 1 is the lowest possible score, shared with no other model except the Folgore itself in the entire matrix. The 800V system requires specialized high-voltage training that most independent shops do not offer. Proprietary VDCM diagnostics have no third-party equivalent. OTA-dependent calibration means the vehicle’s software layer requires server connectivity to the manufacturer. And the manufacturer’s dealer network is shrinking: Maserati’s global shipments have declined from 51,500 in 2017 to approximately 7,800 in 2025, an 85% collapse. The service infrastructure that would support long-term 800V ownership is contracting, not expanding.
Residual Stability of 1 captures active manufacturer price destruction. Stellantis has authorized $85,000 “Folgore EV Assistance Cash” discounts on the GranTurismo Folgore and GranCabrio Folgore, representing 43% off MSRP. CarsDirect called it the largest manufacturer-backed discount they have ever recorded. At the discounted price of approximately $113,000, the electric GranTurismo becomes cheaper than the gas-powered GranTurismo (base $159,495). When a manufacturer discounts a vehicle by nearly half its sticker price, it is not building a market. It is clearing inventory. The secondary market reads this signal accurately, and responds with the lowest residual confidence of any vehicle in the coverage universe.
Supply Priority at 2 reflects the institutional collapse beneath the engineering. Stellantis ranks last on the 2025 OEM-Supplier Working Relations Index, scoring 141 points against Toyota’s 386, a 245-point gap that has widened year over year. The survey, published May 19, 2025 by Plante Moran and covering 665 supplier executives from 398 Tier-1 suppliers, quantifies how effectively manufacturers collaborate with their semiconductor and component suppliers. Stellantis scored lower in 2025 than the prior year. The Folgore’s bespoke triple-motor 800V architecture is shared with zero other vehicles in the Stellantis portfolio, meaning no cross-platform economies of scale exist to justify continued investment in its specific components. And the corporate trajectory is pointed downward: on the July 25, 2024 earnings call, CFO Natalie Knight said “There could be some point in the future when we look at what’s the best home for [Maserati].” CEO Carlos Tavares added separately: “If they don’t make money, we’ll shut them down.” Stellantis issued a denial, stating the brand was not for sale. In June 2025, Reuters reported that Stellantis had hired McKinsey to evaluate strategic options including a possible Maserati sale. As of publication, no sale has occurred, and the current CFO Doug Ostermann (who replaced Knight in October 2024) has not repeated the divestiture language. If Maserati is sold, spun off, or wound down, the Folgore’s bespoke Marelli powertrain components become orphaned technology with no institutional parent to ensure continued production.
The Folgore is impressive engineering on a collapsing corporate foundation. The matrix scores the foundation, not the engineering.
The scores in this article reflect where the secondary market is heading, not where it was. If you own one of the models documented in this series and are considering your options, our team provides confidential valuations backed by certified funds and a streamlined acquisition process.
Patterns Across the Discount
Six models, six composites ranging from 33 to 14. Three patterns emerge.
Institutional backing without mechanical sovereignty cannot save a score. The SF90 carries Ferrari’s full institutional weight: STMicro executive pipeline, European fab access, strong Supply Priority. Its Geopolitical Resilience and Supply Priority scores (7 and 7) match or exceed most Analog Icons. None of it prevents a Residual Stability of 3. The market is pricing semiconductor exposure through Ferrari hybrid depreciation, and Ferrari SF90 Stradale depreciation at 36.5% from sticker is the clearest proof that institutional relationships cannot offset what architecture creates.
McLaren’s Supply Priority of 2 is the single most damaging metric in the matrix. The 720S and Artura share identical Supply Priority scores of 2, but their composite gap is 9 points (30 versus 21). The 720S survives on mechanical merit: S:HP of 7, Node Longevity of 5, Repair Sovereignty of 5. The Artura’s zonal Ethernet architecture strips those advantages away. For any McLaren owner, the Supply Priority score is the structural constraint that no amount of engineering excellence can overcome. McLaren is a chassis company that buys electronics from suppliers, operating with no parent group procurement, no in-house semiconductor capability, and a confirmed history of chip supply failure.
The Folgore is not an outlier. It is the logical endpoint. Maximum silicon density (S:HP of 1), maximum repair captivity (Repair Sovereignty of 1), maximum price destruction (Residual Stability of 1), and minimum institutional support (Supply Priority of 2) converge at a composite of 14. Every variable that creates the Analog Premium in Part 1 is inverted here. The Folgore is what the matrix predicts when semiconductor dependency, repair restriction, and corporate fragility compound without offset. It is the floor.
What Comes Next
In Part 4, we examine the timeline. The semiconductor dynamics documented across Parts 1, 2, and 3 are not static. Foundry decommissioning schedules, AI capacity buildout, trade policy shifts, and manufacturer investment decisions are all moving on specific timelines that create both risk and opportunity within a defined window. The decisions exotic car owners make in the next 24 months will determine whether their vehicles retain the structural advantages documented in this series, or whether those advantages erode as the industry transitions around them.
The framework is established. The scores are set. Part 4 answers the question that follows from all of it: when does the window close?
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the Bugatti Chiron score highest among Part 3 models despite its restrictive service model?
The Chiron’s composite of 33 is driven by two factors the other models cannot match: Rimac Technology’s in-house ECU design and manufacturing capability (the strongest chip-replacement pathway in the matrix) and the W16’s placement on the same 65nm Category 3 node that supports the Analog Icons in Part 2. The service restrictions are real and documented, which is why Repair Sovereignty scores only 4. But the matrix distinguishes between access friction (who can fix it) and replacement capability (whether the silicon can be replaced at all). On capability, the Chiron is protected. On access, it is captive.
Why do the 720S and Revuelto tie at 30 despite very different architectures?
The 720S reaches 30 through strong mechanical scores (S:HP 7, Repair Sovereignty 5) dragged down by McLaren’s Supply Priority of 2. The Revuelto reaches 30 through strong institutional backing (Supply Priority 8) dragged down by dual-architecture semiconductor exposure and a Repair Sovereignty of 3. They arrive at the same number from opposite directions: one is a good car with weak institutional support, the other is an institutionally backed car with complex architecture. The matrix captures both paths to the same composite.
How can the SF90 score lower than the 720S when Ferrari SF90 depreciation is driven by architecture, not institutional weakness?
Ferrari IS a stronger company than McLaren, and the SF90’s Geopolitical Resilience (7 vs 6) and Supply Priority (7 vs 2) reflect that institutional advantage. But the SF90’s hybrid architecture creates exposure on Residual Stability (3 vs 5), S:HP Ratio (3 vs 7), and Node Longevity (4 vs 5) that Ferrari’s institutional strength cannot offset. The matrix weighs what the car IS (its semiconductor architecture) equally against who SUPPORTS it (its manufacturer). The Ferrari SF90 Stradale wins on institutional support. The 720S wins on architectural simplicity. Architecture wins.
What does the Folgore’s score of 14 mean for EV exotic car values generally?
The Folgore’s 14 is not a statement about all EVs. It is a statement about what happens when maximum silicon density meets minimum institutional support, maximum repair captivity, and active manufacturer price destruction. A full EV from a manufacturer with strong procurement (a hypothetical Porsche or VW Group BEV platform, for example) would score materially higher on Supply Priority, Repair Sovereignty, and Residual Stability. The Folgore’s score is driven as much by Stellantis’s corporate trajectory as by its 800V architecture.
Is the Silicon Discount permanent or cyclical?
The semiconductor dynamics creating the Silicon Discount are structural, not cyclical. Foundry floor space reallocation toward AI is accelerating, not reversing. Advanced-node allocation pressure on automotive is increasing, not decreasing. Manufacturer investment in hybrid and EV architectures continues, which means the next generation of exotics will carry more semiconductor content, not less. The specific depreciation rates of individual models may stabilize as each Ferrari SF90 Stradale secondary market discount and Artura markdown gets priced in, but the structural forces creating the Analog Premium and the Silicon Discount are durable trends documented across the semiconductor industry’s published capacity and investment data.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or purchasing advice. All market data, pricing figures, and semiconductor industry metrics referenced herein are derived from publicly available sources and are believed to be accurate as of the date of publication. Exotics Wanted makes no guarantee regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of third-party data. The Silicon Scarcity Asset Matrix is a proprietary analytical framework developed by Exotics Wanted. Composite scores reflect semiconductor supply chain positioning and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any vehicle. The terms “Analog Premium,” “Silicon Discount,” “Silicon Scarcity Asset Matrix,” “Legacy Wall,” and “The Great Divergence” are proprietary concepts of Exotics Wanted. Forward-looking statements regarding semiconductor availability, foundry capacity, manufacturer financial health, and market valuations are projections based on current data and industry trends; actual outcomes may differ materially. Independent professional advice should be sought for any vehicle transaction or financial decision.
